След поредните разочароващи новини идващи от Америка и на фона на традиционната лятна треска съпътстваща пазарите по това време на годината, оптимизмът е почти изцяло напуснал коментатори и журналисти. Според индексът на изненадващи новини публикуван от City, наблюдаваното икономическо забавяне е по-малко очаквано дори и от проблемното лято на 2010г.
И все пак е трудно да си представим, че излизането от най-тежката рецесия от десетилетия ще е бързо и безпроблемно. Така смятат и от Danske Bank, които никак не са притеснени от доминиращия песимизъм и очакват 3,5% – 4% ръст на БВП през втората половина на 2011г.
“Supporting the case for a stronger decline in the ISM manufacturing index is also that hard data have been much weaker than suggested by the ISM index. Firstly, GDP growth was actually below trend in Q1 rising 1.8% q/q annualised. Last time there was such a large divergence between GDP growth and ISM was in 2004 and subsequently we saw a quite fast decline in the ISM index (see chart on page 1). Secondly, industrial production has already slowed. The three-month annualised growth rate was only 1.8% in April, down from the strong levels in mid 2010 of 9.5%.
We believe this may contribute to another “false” growth scare as we have seen quite a few times, when ISM goes down fairly rapidly. At the same time, though, we look for US GDP growth to recover slowly already from Q2 and especially in H2 to a pace of 3.5-4% AR. This will very much mirror what we saw in early 2005 when ISM continued lower coming from a “too high” level relative to hard data while at the same time GDP growth stayed around 3% growth. The growth scare may be heightened by the ongoing budget discussions culminating in late July as we approach the deadline for a raise of the debt limit. This will put focus on the significant tightening of fiscal policy in 2012 and 2013.
As growth recovers and ISM stabilises during autumn, the growth scare should fade again, though, and we may see some relief that growth has not derailed after all.”
Анализаторите на банката посочват три основни позитивни тенденции, които според тях ще са достатъчни, за да върнат добрите времена:
“Three factors to support consumption in coming quarters However, the US households will benefit from three important factors:
1. Decline in oil prices: Since early May oil prices have fallen by app. USD15 to USD112 per barrel. We expect oil prices to stay lower and average USD116 for the rest of the year, which means that the PCE deflator is likely to fall back to around 2% by the end of the year giving a lift to real consumption growth of 2 percentage points. This means that more of the rise in nominal spending will feed into real consumption as less is absorbed by price increases.
2. Labour market improving: Another important factor that will underpin consumption growth is the rise in nominal income growth stemming from the improving labour market situation – see Flash Comment: US payrolls point to solid income gains. In April our income proxy derived from the US employment report rose to 5.5%. This income growth stems from a stronger rise in payrolls of 244k and a rise in average hours. Wage growth, though, is very subdued (around 2%) and is dampening overall income growth. In coming quarters we expect job growth to continue around 225-250k and we look for a further rise in average hours. Wage growth is expected to stay low, but in total this should keep nominal income growth in coming quarters around 5-6%.
3. Credit growth rising: The latest Senior Loan Officer Survey pointed to further improvement in credit standards for households and a stronger willingness to lend. Consumers’ demand for credit is also on the rise. This will increasingly underpin private consumption on top of the robust income picture.”
Разбира се негативно настроените могат лесно да отстрелят тези аргументи (особено 2. и 3.), с оглед на последните данни за заетостта, но е добре поне да уважат възможността за реално икономическо възстановяване. Никак не е изключено светът да не свърши след като Фед приключат с монетарното си разхлабване…
И все пак истината най-вероятно е някъде посредата. Така поне смята Kash Mansori, който проверява валидността на временните фактори, обвинявани за временното забавяне на икономическото възстановяване (високите цени на петрола и земетресението в Япони).
The weakness in the US economy over the past few months has been disappointing, to say the least. But I’ve been wondering whether it’s possible that the palpable slowdown in growth could be directly the result of two potentially significant events that have certainly had a negative impact on the US economy in recent months: the sharp rise in oil prices, and the earthquake in Japan. Could this spring’s sudden slowdown in the US economy simply be due to these suppply-side shocks?
Изводът, до който достига може най-лесно да се определи като “балансиран”. Според неговите изчисления, временните фактори не са повлияли на американския БВП с повече от 0,2% за първото тримесечие и 0,5% за второто.
So unfortunately, these effects are simply not large enough to completely account for all of the slowdown in economic activity in the US in recent months. They certainly haven’t been helping things, and are responsible for some part of the soft patch we’re in… but it also seems that there must be some demand-side contributors as well. And that’s the worrying part, because while the negative supply-side factors may reverse themselves in coming months on their own, it’s considerably more difficult to imagine where a new boost to demand is going to come from.
По въпроса за слабото общо търсене, причини едва ли могат да се търсят в липса на свободни средства…
Propelled by growth in nearly every region, global wealth continued a solid recovery in 2010, increasing by 8.0 percent, or $9 trillion, to a record of $121.8 trillion.1 That level was about $20 trillion above where it stood just two years prior during the depths of the financial crisis, according to a new study by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG)…
…North America had the largest absolute gain of any regional wealth market in assets under management (AuM), at $3.6 trillion, and the second-highest growth rate, at 10.2 percent. Its $38.2 trillion in AuM made it the world’s richest region, with nearly one-third of global wealth.
…по-скоро причината може би се крие в следната графика, която изразява тенденция наблюдавана в почти целия свят:
